Modeling Azerbaijan’s action process concerning Nagorno-Karabakh and the occupied territories
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Abstract
The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict was caused by the warring sides’ claims of land possession or their struggle to maintain possession of their land. Despite the historical reasons for the conflict between Azerbaijan and Armenia, the primary factor for Karabakh's occupation by Armenia was the collapse of the Soviet Union. A limited ceasefire was achieved in 1994; however, lasting peace could not be sustained. During the tentative ceasefire, rising tensions at the Azerbaijan-Armenian border bring the countries back to the brink of war. Lack of a permanent solution to the conflict via diplomatic means has resulted in an increase in tensions since 2014. This study aimed to provide a systematic analysis of Azerbaijan’s perspective concerning the conflict, in terms of the political, economic, geographic, and military factors, as well as the other elements of national power. Using decisional analysis techniques of the factors mentioned above, the action process of Azerbaijan is modelled.
Keywords: Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, influence diagram, decision analysis
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