Narratives, dependencies, and financial drivers of European resistance to Russian fossil fuel phase-out

Abstract

Despite commitments to reduce dependence on external fossil fuels, significant imports persist, raising concerns over energy security, climate objectives, and geopolitical strategy. Existing analyses often overlook the complex networks through which external energy interests maintain influence over regional energy markets. This study addresses this gap by examining how foreign energy actors exert influence through ownership structures, financial flows, lobbying networks, and narrative shaping. A multi-method approach was employed, incorporating corporate and contractual documentation, financial tracking, and lobbying analysis. The findings reveal that former officials and organizations have facilitated favorable narratives, while energy companies have indirectly supported external revenues. These dynamics demonstrate how entrenched influence networks can undermine policy goals and perpetuate dependency. The study highlights the importance of targeted regulatory measures and enhanced cooperation with independent actors to mitigate undue influence. Recommendations include the expansion of sanctions against key external energy firms and strengthened collaboration with civil society and regional partners. By mapping these mechanisms, the research provides actionable insights for policymakers seeking to reinforce energy sovereignty and align energy practices with strategic and environmental objectives.

Keywords: Energy dependence; energy security; lobbying networks; policy influence; strategic governance