Best-fit probability distributions and return periods for daily rainfall in the Kyrenia region, Northern Cyprus

Abstract

Kyrenia region is in the northern part of Northern Cyprus that is environmentally fragile and susceptible to natural disasters. Thus, the study of frequency analysis is essential to find the most suitable model that could detect the region’s risk in certain natural phenomena such as rainfall, flood, and so on. The objective of this research is to determine the best fit probability distribution in the case of average daily rainfall and total rainfall using 22 years of data (1995-2016) from the Kyrenia region in Northern Cyprus by using 37 probability distribution models. The best-fit probability distribution in the case of maximum annual daily rainfall is determined using various distribution types. Three goodness-of-fit test statistics were applied. Beta, Dagum, Wakeby, Paretoa, Log-Pearson 3, Gen. Extreme Value, and Gen. Gamma (4P) showed the largest number of best-fit results. The results of this study can be used to develop more accurate models of flooding risk and damage.

Keywords: Distribution function; goodness-of-fit tests;  Northern Cyprus; rainfall.