Flash flood risk assessment modelling and methods: Kyrenia Region, Northern Cyprus

Abstract

Flash flooding risk impacts can be reduced through the implementation of mitigation strategies plan (MSP) for flood management. This study aims to develop a flash-floods risk mitigation plan, which appears to be beneficial for municipalities, provincial administrators, and authorities to reduce the impact of the flash flood in the Kyrenia region, Northern Cyprus. In this work, rainfall data were collected from the nearest stations for 22 years. The return periods of maximum daily rainfall are also determined by using six formulas. Furthermore, flood inundation and hazard maps were defined by utilizing SAGA, QGIS, ArcGIS, 2D HEC RAS, and HEC -HMS software then determining the degree of risk and identifying strategies based on quantitative risk analysis by developing a risk matrix. As a final result, catastrophic risk areas are distributed significantly downstream. In conclusion, the proposed flash flood mitigation plan includes strategies to reduce flood losses of human life and constructed structures across Kyrenia and proposed hazard and inundation risk maps to assess planners and decision-makers for the potential impact of floods to avoid.

Keywords: DEM; Flash Flood; Hazard map; HEC-RA Mitigation plan; Risk matrix